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article open published: 02 july 2015
scientific reports volume5, article number: 11206 (2015)download citation
it is widely known that financial markets can become dangerously unstable, yet it is unclear why
recent research has highlighted the possibility that endogenous hormones, in particular testosterone and cortisol, may critically influence traders’ financial decision making
here we show that cortisol, a hormone that modulates the response to physical or psychological stress, predicts instability in financial markets
specifically, we recorded salivary levels of cortisol and testosterone in people participating in an experimental asset market (n = 142) and found that individual and aggregate levels of endogenous cortisol predict subsequent risk-taking and price instability
we then administered either cortisol (single oral dose of 100 mg hydrocortisone, n = 34) or testosterone (three doses of 10 g transdermal 1% testosterone gel over 48 hours, n = 41) to young males before they played an asset trading game
we found that both cortisol and testosterone shifted investment towards riskier assets
cortisol appears to affect risk preferences directly, whereas testosterone operates by inducing increased optimism about future price changes
our results suggest that changes in both cortisol and testosterone could play a destabilizing role in financial markets through increased risk taking behaviour, acting via different behavioural pathways
numerous reasons have been proposed to explain why financial markets undergo periods of instability
these include: debt accumulation1, incorrect beliefs about the earnings process2, limits to arbitrage3, asset incompleteness4, herding5,6 or momentum trading7,8
yet influential economists still recognize the key role played by the unpredictability of human motivation9
john maynard keynes captured this idea originally with the term ‘animal spirits’: “a spontaneous urge to action” ultimately responsible for our decisions to take risks impulsively rather than after a process of careful calculation10
alan greenspan and robert shiller later used the phrase ‘irrational exuberance’ to describe a possible cause of overvaluations in asset markets11,12
however, despite the prominence of this idea, the physiological basis for “irrational exuberance” has only recently begun to be explored13
trading floors are highly stressful and competitive environments
in both humans and non-human animals, such conditions are known to be associated with fluctuations primarily in two endogenous steroid hormones: cortisol and testosterone
cortisol is elevated in response to physical or psychological stress14, and is particularly sensitive to situations of novelty, uncertainty or threat15
acute increases in cortisol promote fear, physical arousal and sensation seeking14
testosterone has been found to both predict success rates and confidence in competitive encounters with levels increasing in response to victories16,17 or challenging situations, thought to be part of a positive feedback loop termed the ‘winner effect’18,19
testosterone has also been closely linked with perceived social status20,21,22,23
in men, elevated levels of testosterone have been associated with increased aggression, sexual function and mood24,25,26
thus, the evidence would seem to indicate that either hormone could play a role in modulating individual preferences for risk taking and market instability, particularly when participating in an arena as stressful and competitive as a modern financial market
this possibility is supported by data from field investigations examining the hormone levels of professional traders
one study reported that traders made significantly higher profits on days when their morning testosterone levels were above their daily average, and that increased variability in profits and uncertainty in the market was reliably associated with elevations in their cortisol levels27
a second study found that traders’ second-to-fourth digit ratio – a postulated indicator of pre-natal exposure to testosterone28–was also associated with higher profits and career longevity29
if altered levels of either hormone were to affect the appetite for financial risk, could this in turn destabilize the market as a whole? since the fundamental value of an asset in a financial market is an aggregation of the stochastic stream of future dividends, trading at prices higher than the fundamental value is only profitable when there is a widespread belief that other traders will continue to buy at prices even further away from fundamental values
such speculative and ultimately unsustainable trading strategies are risky, and critically contribute towards price instability
an increased willingness to take risks makes these uncertain investments, everything else being equal, more desirable, and this in turn makes price bubbles and financial market instability more likely
however, direct evidence to support a link between hormones and investment behaviour is limited30,31,32,33, and it is not clear whether any of these findings can be generalized to trading in financial markets, where other factors such as confidence and ability are likely to play an important role34
most importantly, none of these investigations provide an answer to the more economically significant question of aggregate market effects
thus, the conjecture that endogenous variations in either hormone could destabilize financial markets remains unaddressed
here we first tested the hypothesis that endogenous levels of either cortisol or testosterone would predict risk taking and price instability in a well-understood experimental trading environment that mimics the key features of a real-world financial market
this experiment involved no hormone administration
changes in subjects’ hormonal levels could only be induced by the natural reaction to our experimental trading environment
in two additional experiments with young males, we induced changes in either hormone by administering cortisol or testosterone
this allowed us to test whether increased levels of either hormone affected performance in an individual investment game
specifically, we

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